Double quick two step

LI MIN/CHINA DAILY

China has to move faster to build a clean, low-carbon, safe, efficient and diversified energy system to achieve its two emissions goals

To date, over 130 countries and regions have set carbon neutrality goals with varying levels of commitment. But some developing countries have pledged to achieve net-zero emissions because of international pressure. For these countries, the race to net zero is bound to be an arduous journey.

The attainment of carbon neutrality goals will be a long-term, gradual, and complicated process. Some countries' radical carbon emissions reduction policies have triggered a surge in energy prices and natural gas shortages. The "energy crunch" that occurred in Europe and the United States to varying degrees during the second half of 2021 was, to a certain extent, caused by radical emissions reductions, a too fast transition toward renewable energies, and excessive policy interventions.

China's climate commitments made in September 2020 to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060 demonstrate the country's strong sense of responsibility.

Compared with developed nations, China faces more difficulties in achieving its carbon neutrality goal and more risks in energy security, as it has high energy consumption and carbon emissions, is late in commencing the energy transition, and has a short window in which to achieve carbon neutrality. To become carbon neutral before 2060, China has to boost the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 25 percent by 2030 and 80 percent by 2060, posing grave challenges to the adjustment of China's energy consumption structure and energy supply security.

Therefore, it is far more challenging for China to achieve carbon neutrality than developed nations. To date, over 40 countries around the world have seen their emissions peak, which is by and large a natural result of changes in their industrial and energy structures and the completion of their urbanization process. While it takes the world 53 years on average to peak carbon emissions, the US 46 years and the developed economies over 70 years on average to achieve carbon neutrality from their carbon emission peaks, China has just 30 years to do so.

Coal still forms the lion's share of China's energy consumption structure, despite a notable improvement in the structure in recent years. If China reduces coal consumption too fast and too drastically, it will inevitably deal a blow to its energy supply security in the short term. In the second half of 2021, large-scale power cuts occurred in some Chinese localities due to coal power shortages. Despite a rapid decline in the share of coal in China's total energy consumption and the fact that China's coal consumption will peak during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25), coal will remain China's primary energy source before 2035.

Meanwhile, sustained growth in oil and gas consumption has made China highly dependent on imported oil and gas. China's dependence on oil and gas imports exceeds 70 percent and 40 percent respectively. As China's economic structure and energy consumption structure further optimize, its demand for oil and gas, in particular gas, will remain strong, and their share in China's energy consumption will continue to rise.

China has complicated national conditions. Different Chinese localities have varying economic and social conditions, therefore they are at different starting lines in the race to achieve net zero emissions. Therefore, if the measures designed for low-carbon transformation are not suited to local conditions, they will possibly deal a blow to local economic growth, energy supplies and people's well-being. For instance, when implementing the special emission limits for air pollutants in 2017, some of the cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region faced severe natural gas and heating shortages during the heating season, as a result of lack of preparedness and planning.

When establishing a new development pattern, in order to achieve higher-quality energy security while pursuing its carbon neutrality goal, China should vigorously advocate a broader concept of energy security. It should increase its domestic supply capacity and improve the emergency response mechanism; stimulate market vitality and strengthen international energy cooperation; and press ahead with low-carbon transformation steadily, by coordinating conventional energy security and new energy security, and energy development and energy security. Domestically, China has to move faster to build a clean, low-carbon, safe, efficient and diversified energy system. Globally, China needs to advance international cooperation in an all-round way to promote the building of a global community for energy security based on mutually beneficial cooperation.

Conventional energy security is mainly centered on oil security, whilst modern energy security risks are not limited to those associated with fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas, but extend to such fields as electric power security, energy network security, and critical minerals security. Conventional energy security mainly focuses on securing the energy supply, while modern energy security focuses more on building a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system. The global "energy crunch" in the second half of 2021 indicates that energy security is still a critical foundation for economic development, and the goal of net zero emissions cannot be achieved without a balance between low-carbon development and energy security.

In the meantime, it requires China to further open its energy sector to the world to achieve more diversified international energy trade, investment, and strategic cooperation. Energy cooperation between major countries must be further consolidated. Sino-Russian energy cooperation and China's strategic cooperation with the Gulf countries should be bolstered. And China-Gulf Cooperation Council Free Trade Agreement negotiations should be advanced. It is vital to advance international cooperation in green energy and low-carbon transition. It needs to accelerate the construction of the Green Silk Road, help countries and regions involved in the Belt and Road Initiative to enhance their capacity in green development, and jointly promote infrastructure construction for new energy and new technologies. International exchanges and cooperation in green and low-carbon industries should be boosted to improve relevant trade, investment and financing mechanisms.

The author is director of the Center for Energy Security Studies under the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Contact the editor at editor@chinawatch.cn