All the alarms are ringing

FU JUNHONG/FOR CHINA DAILY

Annihilation beckons unless real actions are taken to address climate change

The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change of the United Nations recently started to issue a new assessment report on the state of global climate, the sixth since the first report was released in 1990. Authored by 234 leading Earth and climate science experts from around the world, the report has made global headlines, for as UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said, it is "a code red for humanity".

Notwithstanding the COVID-19 pandemic, the climate crisis is the gravest issue confronting mankind, and our reactions are far from enough to address it. Guterres said governments around the world have not demonstrated the ambition required to limit global warming to 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels. The IPCC report indicates that even in the most optimistic scenario, which would see global carbon emissions drop to net zero by 2050, the global temperature will still increase by 1.6 C; while the worst-case scenario predicts a rise of 2.4 C by mid-century and a catastrophic 5.7 C increase by 2100. This means that even in the most optimistic scenario, the world will not be able to restrict global warming to 1.5 C.

Studies conducted by IPCC and other research institutes in recent years have shown that global warming above 1.5 C would bring climate catastrophe to humanity. Last year, China pledged to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060, and there have been other carbon neutrality pledges. However, there is still a large gap to bridge for the world to hit the targets of the Paris Agreement. The IPCC report indicates that humanity will be unable to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 C in all five possible scenarios for the future. The COP 26 UN Climate Change Conference will take place in Glasgow, Scotland, in November. To implement the Paris Agreement, countries should present more ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions, work out concrete action plans to save the planet's ecosystems and shelve political disputes. Developed nations need to assume their due historical responsibilities and honor their commitments to help developing countries' emission reduction efforts by providing financial support and technical expertise. Meanwhile, developing nations should drop the modernization path driven by fossil fuels that was adopted by developed countries, and embrace sustainable growth modes. In the fight against climate change, the most important thing is to establish a new mechanism to unify the entire world to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible.

In addition, we should adapt to climate change to mitigate the loss of life and property caused by disasters such as floods, droughts and heatwaves. The IPCC report points out that in the past century, the planet has undergone atmospheric changes on a scale "unprecedented" for the past few centuries, if not millennium. For example, since 1900 the global sea level has been rising faster than in any single century in the past 3,000 years. Over recent years, the world has seen more extreme weather events--forest fires in the United States and Australia last year, the floods that claimed hundreds of lives in Germany and Belgium this year, and the extreme rainfall that hit China's Henan province. These are evidence that climate disasters are becoming more frequent and severe.

The IPCC report also shows the climate change has "lock-in "effects, as greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide emitted from human activities can stay in the atmosphere for long periods of time, thus bringing about long-term climate impacts, such as more frequent extreme weather. Therefore, infrastructure, such as electricity facilities, roads, subways, and bridges, should be resilient and capable of withstanding more extreme weather events. We need to better cope with impacts from climate change, ensuring the safety of life and property in all kinds of climate disasters. The most important is to protect the vulnerable groups--the elderly, women, children, and the disabled--living in economically underdeveloped areas and rural regions from the influence of extreme weather. Governments and societies should lose no time in shoring up the points of weakness in this regard.

The IPCC report "must sound a death knell for coal and fossil fuels, before they destroy our planet," Guterres said. It is time to reject climate skepticism and take real actions to avoid the looming crisis. Over the past three decades, the IPCC studies conducted by hundreds of scientists have clearly indicated that the Earth's climate is changing. Scientists are unbiased and not prone to exaggerating in their wording. The new report states "it is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, oceans and land", and it is "statement of fact" that humanity is having a damaging effect on the climate.

Since the first industrial revolution, technological advancements have empowered humans to greatly improve productivity and people's livelihoods. Humans believed they had broken free from the restraints of nature and become masters of the planet. However, that arrogance has led to massive devastation of the planets' ecosystems, the climate, and the ecological environment. The situation is so somber that there can be no business as usual, as that will lead us to a dead-end future. In February, the UN Environmental Programme issued a report assessing the Earth's state of health, titled "Making Peace With Nature", in which it put a spotlight on the triple planetary crises of climate change, pollution and nature loss. If not properly addressed, the harm we are doing to the natural world will be irredeemable. The IPCC report sounded an alarm bell that cannot be ignored. Warning bells have been rung before, but as Inger Anderson, the executive director of the UNEP, said: "We listened, but we did not hear or act strongly enough. As a result, climate change is a problem here and now." It is hoped that this time, humanity will hear the voices of science and make some real changes, as that is the only way to save ourselves.

The author is a professor at Beijing Jiaotong University and vice-chairman of the Chinese Association of Development Strategy Studies.

The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.