Three experts' prospects about the New Year

By Zhang Zhouxiang | chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2021-02-11 09:03

The Year of the Mouse came to the end, and the Year of the Ox arrives. What can we expect in the new year? Three experts share their views with China Daily's Zhang Zhouxiang.

Public health

Li Taisheng, senior doctor from Peking Union Medical College Hospital, who worked at a severe patient ward in Wuhan for 80 days

Keyword for Year of the Mouse: Lesson
Keyword for Year of the Ox: Caution

It was on Feb 7 that I traveled to Wuhan and joined the battle against COVID-19; on April 27, I came back as the last group to withdraw. During the 81 days there, I hosted a C9 ward for patients in critical condition, and we received a total of 109.

I have fully experienced how we learned to treat the patients in severe condition, what medicine to give them and what treatment measures to apply.

The COVID-19 pandemic is, in my view, the most influential moment in the past 50 years. So far, 106 million people have been infected, of which 2.3 million have died. More importantly, the whole world's order has been disturbed and everybody has been affected in daily life. Economic growth has slowed, companies were shut down and jobs were lost.

The failure of some countries in coping with the pandemic makes things worse. Some of their politicians falsely resorted to "herd immunity" to contain the virus, while some politicians barely adopted half measures.

A lesson must be learned from this. Epidemic prevention remains the top priority of humankind and there is no excuse to waver on any point.

Some said there is a hope of the whole world controlling COVID-19 because we now have vaccines. Vaccines are good weapons against epidemics and they will hopefully make the situation better, but it would be foolish to expect COVID-19 to disappear entirely thanks to vaccines.

The novel coronavirus has a lower death rate, but it is more sophisticated in two aspects. First, those infected by it might show no symptoms for a long period, which makes quarantine more difficult; Second, it has a higher rate of mutation, which raises the risk of bypassing immune systems even after vaccination.

Thus, we might need to coexist with the novel coronavirus for a long time. A look back at recent decades will show many newly mutated viruses emerging, such as ebola, zika, bird flu or swine flu. There are more epidemics that might challenge humankind, so we must improve our public health system, deepen our research and show respect to nature.

Situations in the US

Jin Canrong, vice dean of the School of International Studies at Renmin University of China

Keyword for Year of the Mouse: Chaos
Keyword for Year of the Bull: Deadlock

The US in 2020 was full of chaos. First of all, the COVID-19 pandemic dealt so heavy a blow to its society every sector felt the impact: Tourism dropped, airports were closed, cities see-sawed between lockdown and re-opening.

The presidential election, which came at this critical time, made things worse. The Republican and Democratic parties struggled for this most important position and held events for it as if it was entertainment. These activities, involving conflicts between the two, caused deeper chaos.

Most importantly, the deep split that has long been a feature the US society was inflamed in 2020. It is not an exaggeration to say the US had fallen into a Hobbesian state of everyone against everyone: Rich against poor, liberal against conservative, locals against immigrants, white supremacy against Black Lives Matter.

The situation had become so bad people even argued over whether wearing a mask should become mandatory. There are jokes passed around about someone who wore a mask walking his dog in the street being stopped and asked whether he supported the Democrats. These jokes are bitter for US people who experienced this major split of society.

That's why "chaos" is the defining word for the US in 2020. Sadly, there is little hope of ending that chaos in 2021.

The new US president Joe Biden took office on Jan 20, but former President Donald Trump got 74 million votes in the election and his base shows no hint of giving up. During the coming four years, Trump's supporters will set more roadblocks for the Democratic president.

Biden vowed to be president for all Americans, not just Democrats, but that might not be up to him.

Deadlocks in political affairs might well be a common thing in the US in the coming four years, and there is little hope of ending that.

Wang Fan, vice president of China Foreign Affairs University

Keyword about Year of the Mouse: Turbulent
Keyword about Year of the Ox: Recovery

The world security landscape in 2020 was rather bad. In the non-traditional sector, the US as the world's only superpower acted so nastily in the fight against COVID-19 that the world's major economies all had to face the challenge of the pandemic.

The worsening situation of the pandemic in the US had affected world security in at least two aspects. First, in order to lessen their own pressure and prevent voters from paying attention to their failures, US politicians shifted blame to China; When that attempt failed, they hyped up threats from Iran as if it posed a grave challenge.

Second, it distracted the world's major powers from governing world affairs, and in turn caused a major deficit in world governance. As a result, some traditional security problems emerged due to a lack of major powers controlling situations. The armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is a good example of this, as it did not end until Russian forces maintained peace there.

Therefore, the situation in 2020 was untraditional challenges to security causing traditional challenges to security. The keyword for the year, "turbulent", contains more meanings than its initial meaning of "disorder": It contains fear, conflict, even despair.

Hopefully, with the vaccine being introduced, the US will begin to control the COVID-19 pandemic. But we can only say "hopefully" because no one knows whether the vaccine will be effective in doing so.

If the COVID-19 pandemic, which is especially grave in the US, can be effectively put under control, then its destructive effects to world governance mechanisms can be neutralized a little and the world will see hope of recovery. It might not be as good as it was before the pandemic, but hopefully much better than the worst days.

US President Joe Biden said the US would rejoin some multilateral mechanisms and agreements former president Donald Trump exited in his four-year term. But this can be a double-edged sword, too, because the US and other countries have different definitions of the term "multilateral agreement". For the US, it means they have dominance and absolute say; For other countries, it means discussion.

We can hope for good changes in the Year of the Ox, and let's strive together for that.