Hawkish Hillary or unpredictable Trump: Choice China faces

By Harvey Dzodin | chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2016-10-13 11:21

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton addresses the National Convention of the American Legion in Cincinnati, Ohio, US, August 31, 2016. [Photo/Agencies]

With weeks to go until the bizarre US presidential campaigns ends, the outcome is still uncertain. What does a President Clinton or Trump mean for Sino-US relations? Will we continue to be the best of frenemies, loving and loathing each other, but recognizing that our bilateral relationship is the world's most important?

Observers should always declare their bias. The early 20th century humorist, Will Rogers said, " I am not a member of any organized political party. I'm a Democrat." And so am I, but now it's the Republican party that's in utter disarray.

Foreign policy requires predictability to enable nations to determine how best to pursue national interest. This is why our countries have so many analysts trying to determine and prioritize probable scenarios and how to respond to them. The more transparency, the better. This is why Trump would be such a disaster. Trump is a serial liar whose own term for it is "truthful hyperbole". But he occasionally tells the truth as I believe he did last April at a speech in Washington when he said that "we as a nation have to be more unpredictable". This is a recipe for international relations disaster.

Judging from Trump's comments and the Republican National Committee platform, Sino-US relations will definitely emphasize the second syllable of "frenemies". China can look forward to economic warfare from punitive US tariffs and trade barriers. Trump wants to upend the post-1945 world order, end alliances, close military bases in places like Japan and Korea and let allies fend for themselves. However this is merely an educated guess because we don't know who will advise Trump and if he will listen to them, but they're likely to be seasoned cold warriors and neoconservatives, the likes of whom brought us the "liberation" of Iraq and other disasters for which the world still suffers mightily.

Nevertheless, Trump has masterfully tapped into widespread malaise and massaged it to the verge of being elected. All of Hillary Clinton's numerous expert and political endorsements mean nothing to the 21st century Luddites of Trump's Know Nothing party. In fact, they motivate Trump supporters to more strongly oppose establishment candidates led by "Crooked Hillary".

I know that many Chinese friends don't care for Clinton. She is the author of the pivot to Asia. She's a hawk who, while generally representing a continuation of Obama policies, will definitely be playing hardball.

Unlike Trump, her actions, and those of her seasoned advisors, will be predictable. The Clinton Administration will hit the ground running next January 20th conducting Freedom of Navigation Operations in the South China Sea and trying to push China away from a might makes right strategy to that of rule of international law. Her administration will not necessarily encircle China but provide a counterweight to China's growing economic and military muscle in the region. The DPRK's growing nuclear capability will also be a front burner issue in which China has a choice to be part of the problem or a partner in reigning in this erratic pariah state.

It took anti-Communist Richard Nixon to establish bilateral relations. Maybe Hillary will have the courage to join China's visionary One Belt One Road initiative. I am sure she will return to support the Trans-Pacific Partnership and hopefully have the good sense to invite China's active participation.

Even though Sino-US relations appear tense, President Obama is handing over a rather healthy relationship between the world's two leading nations. No others have more institutionalized frequent high level bilateral dialogues on issues ranging from economics to warfare to cyber security and the like than our two nations. Great leaps forward have also been made in military-to-military communications and all these should continue to be further enhanced by President Clinton. Sino-US cooperation as exemplified by joint leadership on the Paris Climate Change Agreement will continue and this is further evidence that we can work within a new great power relationship. (Trump doesn't even believe that environmental problems are man-made!) Clinton can finally conclude the long negotiated Bilateral Investment Treaty which significantly opens each country's markets to the other.

With Hillary we get an invaluable freebie with Bill Clinton. And having a woman in the White House, instead of a misogynist, will prove Mao Zedong correct that "women hold up half the sky". And it will give hope to girls in China and elsewhere that their dreams can be limitless and they can aim for the stars. Having a Trump presidency makes me wish that Elon Musk's rockets to Mars were an escape option today as I don't think nuclear radiation from Trump's itchy finger can travel that far!

The author is a senior adviser to Tsinghua University and former director and vice-president of ABC Television in New York.