Believe Evidence or Not

People tend to be more impressed by evidence that seems to confirm some relationship. Thus many are convinced their dreams are prophetic because a few have come true; they neglect or fail to notice the many that have not.

Consider also the belief that "the phone always rings when I'm in the shower." If it does ring while you are in the shower, the event will stand out and be remembered. If it doesn't ring, that nonevent probably won't even register.

People want to see order, pattern and meaning in the world. Consider, for example, the common belief that things like personal misfortunes, plane crashes, and deaths "happen in threes". Such beliefs stem from the tendency of people to allow the third event to define the time period. If three plane crashes occur in a month, then the period of time that counts as their "happening together" is one month; if three crashes occur in a year, the period of time is stretched. Flexible end points reinforce such beliefs.

We also tend to believe what we want to believe. A majority of people think they are more intelligent, more fair-minded and more skilled behind the wheel of an automobile than the average person. Part of the reason we view ourselves so favorably is that we use criteria that work to our advantage. As economist Thomas Schilling explains, "Everybody ranks himself high in qualities he values: careful drivers give weight to care; skilled drivers give weight to skill, and those who are polite give weight to courtesy". This way everyone ranks high on his own scale.

Perhaps the most important mental habit we can learn is to be cautious in drawing conclusions. The "evidence" of everyday life is sometimes misleading.