Workplace Trends for the 21st Century

John S. Challenger

The impact that technology has had on the workplace, and society in general, is undeniable. It will become even greater as computers get smarter, faster, smaller, and so inexpensive that virtually everyone will be able to own one.

Already, it can be seen how the nonstop, technology-driven, global economy is tearing down traditional concepts of time and space. The Internet permits a person to conduct business anytime day or night with a company that might be 10 time zones away.

Portable laptop computers, cell phones, pagers, and wireless Internet connections allow people to work anywhere at any time, so they have more control over their schedules. As a result, many more may choose to take days off in the middle of the traditional workweek, when golf courses and shopping malls are less crowded, and work weekends instead.

In addition, technology will help businesses gain more control over hiring decisions. There currently is a service available in which a small microchip containing the owner's phone number is embedded in a pet's shoulder. The chip allows lost dogs and cats easily to be reunited with their human families. The same technology could eventually be used to screen job candidates. The embedded chip would hold an individual's entire work history. The result would be a "walking resume" that would virtually eliminate fraud and could even allow companies to identify individuals who might pose a threat to workplace safety.

Technology will help firms solve the labor shortages that currently plague many industries, particularly high-tech ones. The human downside, though, is that, in solving labor shortages, technology will ultimately" result in job destruction.

Robotics have eliminated thousands of blue-collar jobs in America's factories and assembly plants. Computers have reduced the need for many white-collar managers since they allow one person to do the work of two or three. How long will it be before technology actually replaces the people who design, build, and program the computers?

Presently, some law firms are utilizing forms of artificial intelligence. While the software currently is unable to match the human mind's flexibility, it does analyze facts, determine which rules apply, make recommendations, and draft the appropriate documents.

This could eventually eliminate the need for paralegals, as well as many entry-level lawyers. More importantly, the existence of this software serves to illustrate just how far humans have come in creating computers that literally think for themselves.

In addition to technology, the other factor that may have great impact on the future of the workplace is the rapidly changing demographic makeup of the population. Skill-short companies will be compelled to open up more opportunities to older workers. As the workplace becomes increasingly bipolar in terms of age, employers will have the challenge of getting the two groups to work together harmoniously in order to maintain continued growth.

Other workplace trends to look for include the following: Occupational synthesis will breed big salaries. Positions traditionally stereotyped as moderate- to low-paying will experience a windfall. What we are starting to see now and will continue to see well into the 21st century is "occupational synthesis," whereby standard job skills are melded to meet specific corporate needs. The result will be workers with more varied, yet specialized, skill sets that command higher and higher pay. For example, the typical public school teacher will be looking at significant pay increases as private businesses invest in public schools in an effort to mold their student bodies into tomorrow's skilled workforce.

High-tech companies, not politicians, will solve labor shortage. The answer will not be the relaxation of immigration laws. Instead, the industry will solve the problem on its own by eliminating the demand for human labor.

Robotics have reduced the need for assembly workers. Conveniences like voice mail, personal digital assistants, calendar soft-ware for PCs and handhelds, and voice-to-text software have eliminated many clerical jobs.

Fusion of home and work will bring an end to weekends. As more people gain more control over when and where they work, neither the workday nor the workweek will have a distinguishable beginning or end. Labor-short companies are increasingly willing to accommodate employees' desire for more flexible scheduling, evidenced by the growing number of firms offering core hours, telecommuting, and flex-time. The trade-off may be that the combination of these alternative work arrangements with the breakneck speed of doing business in the new economy will further blur the line between work and home/ family/ leisure.

Workplace Christmas events will fade in an era of diversity. In addition to concerns over liability, increasing workplace diversity will likely make the traditional company Christmas party a relic of the 20th century. The number of religions and cultures represented in the workplace has grown markedly in the last decade. There are now more then 1,500 primary religious organizations functioning in the U.S., and the number of people practicing these religions grows annually. Muslims will soon become the second largest religious group in the U.S.

Global economy will spawn "inter-econ" workers. A new type of worker will emerge from the growing need to provide goods and services 24 hours a day, seven days a week. To stay competitive in this global economy, companies will rely on employees who are willing and able to work the flexible hours associated with an increasingly Internet-oriented, nonstop marketplace. These individuals are very comfortable with the latest technology, including the Internet. They rely heavily on portable tools, such as cellular phones, laptop (or palmtop) computers, and feather-light modems, for life and work. They could be techno-savvy teens or seniors who have followed the development of the computer since its inception.

Degreed women will shatter the glass ceiling. As companies have a more difficult time finding qualified individuals to fill the rising number of highly skilled positions, college-educated women will be the biggest benefactors, ultimately leading to the disappearance of the glass ceiling.

The number of women earning four-year college degrees surged 44 % over the last two decades, from 444.045 in 1979 to approximately 640.000, or 56 % of the estimated 1,140,000 college graduates, in 1999, according to the Department of Education. Meanwhile, the number of men earning four-year degrees fell six percent from 532.881 in 1993 to 500,000 in 1999.

Telecommuting will drive U.S. productivity. Spurred by employee demand for more flexible scheduling, telecommuting will be the predominant workplace trend. Increased telecommuting will not only benefit employees desiring more balance between work and family, but will pay dividends for employers in terms of improved productivity.

Elder care will prove a company benefit and provide business opportunity. By 2020, the ratio of over-65 individuals to the working-age adult population (18-64) will be 27.7 per 100, a 28.5 % jump from 1998, the Census Bureau reports. In order to be competitive in attracting and keeping talented employees, some firms may offer on-site nonmedical elder care facilities. Employees may bring their parents to these company-run facilities, just as children are brought to company-operated day care centers. The cost of the centers will be offset by increased employee productivity and a lowering of absenteeism rates.

Isolation will be a new workplace problem. Employees will become more and more isolated. Digitally mediated communication, such as e-mail and voice mail, more and more are replacing face-to-face exchanges. The resulting decline in social skills may hinder team problem-solving and threaten productivity. Companies will address this situation through methods like on-site counseling and the development of special programs designed to bring employees together in social settings where they can meet and get to know one another. A new job category may well result along the lines of Director of Socialization.

From USA Today, September 2000.