12. Diseases of the 21st Century

Diseases of the twenty-first century will inevitably be different from those of the twentieth century, just as our present illnesses have been quite different from those of the nineteenth century. Although our health is improving in many ways and we are living longer than in previous decades, new diseases and conditions threaten the quality of our lives. We have already observed some significant changes in the 1980s that foretold what health problems lie ahead in the twenty-first century:

Diseases of the immune system, not just AIDS but various conditions of a deficient or overactive immune system, have reached epidemic proportions.

The number of people suffering from viral conditions that are incurable with conventional therapies is increasing, and the number of newly defined viral conditions, such as the Epstein-Barr virus and cytomegaloviruses, is also increasing significantly.

More and more bacterial infections are becoming resistant to commonly used antibiotics and are requiring stronger and stronger antibiotics, which also are not always successful in curing the infections.

Allergies to foods, to common substance such as animal hairs and house dust, and to new chemicals are becoming more and more prevalent. One in seven Americans had an allergy in 1950, as many as one in five had an allergy in 1970, and approximately 75 million Americans, or nearly one in three, had an allergy in 1985.

Chronic disability is affecting people more frequently at younger and younger ages. According to the National Center for Health Statistics, the percentage of children under 17 years of age who are limited in activity due to chronic conditions increased by 86% from 1967 to 1979.

Mental disease is affecting more and more people. The National Institute of Mental Health estimated in 1984 that one in every five Americans had a mental disorder. This same study revealed that, during a six-month period, 8.3% of Americans suffered from an anxiety disorder, 6.4% had an alcohol or drug problem, and 6% had a mood disorder.

In addition to these various trends, one of the more significant facts that will affect the future of health care is that a larger percentage of the population will be over 65 years old. According to projections by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, the size of the American population over 65 in 1985 will have doubled by 2030.

Futurists generally assume that twenty-first century medicine will include new and more-powerful drugs and various innovative technological interventions. However, futurists tend to ignore the serious problems presently arising from conventional medications. According to 1986 statistics, the average American receives 7.5 prescriptions a year. This is a particularly frightening number because we all know people who have not been prescribed any medications in the past year, which means that someone else is getting their 7.5 drugs.

Since most drugs have side effects, some of which are quite serious, and since the sick person is often prescribed several drugs at the same time, any of which may have even greater potential for side effects, it is no wonder that 50% of the time people do not even get their drug prescriptions filled. Additionally, various studies have indicated that 25% to 90% of the time patients make errors in administering the medicines. Despite the respect that people generally show toward present-day physicians, there does not seem to be equal confidence in the treatments they prescribe.